Maine Democratic Caucuses

The results are in now for today's Maine Democratic Caucuses, and as was largely expected, Barack Obama came out ahead by a fairly decent margin. The Obama train continues roll along, attracting more and more delegates. Hillary Clinton has also booted her campaign manager and gone with someone she's been friends with for a long time. Signs of trouble lurk for her campaign. She also had to loan $5 million of her personal funds to the campaign to keep things afloat. Not like *I* would be sad to see her run out of money and be forced to fade away. Apparently a lot of other people have begun to feel the same. Clinton's lead in the delegate hunt is now razor thin by CNN calculations, and other news agencies now show him ahead.

Maine Democratic Caucuses - 91% reporting
Barack Obama: 59% +15 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 41% +9 delegates

Delegate Totals to Date
Hillary Clinton: 1,148
Barack Obama: 1,121
John Edwards: 26 [Dropped out]

John McCain: 723
Mitt Romney: 286 [Dropped out]
Mike Huckabee: 217
Ron Paul: 16

Next up in the race, the "Potomac Primaries" in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia on February 12 for both parties. A good size chunk of delegates are at stake.
"It is pointless to resist, my son." -- Darth Vader
"Resistance is futile." -- The Borg
"Mother's coming for me in the dragon ships. I don't like these itchy clothes, but I have to wear them or it frightens the fish." -- Thurindil

Well. I guess that's that then.

« Primary Results: February 9, 2008
Potomac Primary Results »

Posted on Feb 10, 2008 6:25 pm by Samson in: | 7 comment(s) [Closed]
So, at this point Obama still needs another 28 delegates to pull ahead of Shrillary and then McCain needs another 427 to take the lead from Obama... any chance that, even given the three district primaries on Tuesday, they could pull off those sorts of numbers yet Tuesday?

I think you've got something mixed up. McCain doesn't need to care about Clinton or Obama right now. That doesn't come until November. Right now both parties are trying to pick who goes on to the general election. After all this primary crap is done, the delegates go to their conventions in August to pick their party nominees.

There's also a good chance that the Democrats will end up with neither candidate getting a clear majority, in which case they go to their convention and the delegates do a bunch of back room deals and stuff to pick whoever goes forward. It's something neither party has actually had to do in something like 50 years. It's usually a long, drawn out, ugly process that would remind you of a mafia meeting. It's called a brokered convention. It would be the best thing to happen for the Republicans since we'll have time to formulate a national campaign, where Clinton and Obama will still be fighting with each other.

With all that in mind, the Democrats need 2,025 delegates to get the majority.
The Republicans need 1,191.

So you can see why McCain has it all but locked up, unless Huckabee pulls off some kind of miracle. And I have no idea what happens with Romney's batch now that he's dropped out.

Oh, it's not all one batch of delegates? Hmm, I guess I hadn't realized that, I was thinking it was still ultimately only one race, but from your last post I'll surmise that it's actually two which then get reset before the real race in August then.

Sounds like one of these brokered conventions would be pretty interesting to watch.

So McCain still needs another 468 delegates to take the Republican candidacy or Huckabee needs 974.. that's quite a huge difference... so, how come the GOP candidates need 834 less delegates than Democratic candidates? Hadn't one of the other (beside Romney) drop outs also held some delegate votes too? (Actually, I suppose Huckabee just needs some 506 delegates or so to send the GOP into the same situation the dems are facing currently then, eh?)

Romney has his delegates still because he has not actually dropped out. He has simply suspended campaigning. He could at anytime begin to campaign again to recapture the lead (though unlikely) my guess is he is keeping his in case somehow McCain screws up big time and either has to quit or something like that then Romeny can com in with his. Though I doubt it he could always send his delgates to Huckabee and bring him up to being a contender. All I know is that as a conservative first and a republician second I don't know what I will do this election but I don't see it being a vote for McCain, Obama, or Hillary. I may have to waste my vote on a third party just to make a poing (if only to myself)

I hear you, Paradigm, about that wasted vote as I also very much dislike the idea of Hillary, Obama, or McCain myself as well. I wasn't aware that Romney was still in the running at this point, it's too bad he and Huckabee can't join forces to compete against McCain, though even combined they'd only have 503 to his 723 delegates, but it'd make the vote tomorrow really count for the GOP in a big way and send a potentially very strong message...

Romney is for all intents and purposes dropped out of the race. Being in suspended state only means he gets to keep his delegates rather than releasing them to the uncommitted pool. Nobody is actually going to vote for him in large numbers now, so it's all a moot point.

While I sympathize with the "conservative first" viewpoint I'm also going to have to play this pragmatically. If conservatives vote for random 3rd party candidates, or worse, vote Democrat, then that's exactly what we'll end up with, a Democrat in office. McCain may not be a wonderful choice but his stand on the war alone is enough to make me hold my nose and vote for him anyway. Clinton and Obama will just surrender and ruin everything Bush has managed to achieve in spite of the media.

As far as delegates, the math simply isn't there for Huckabee to win this unless he takes > 90% of what's left. And even in the most favorable of favorable climates that isn't going to happen.

Sadly, that's about what I'm seeing too.. oh well, I'm planning to try to squeeze a few minutes in today between my errands to swing by the polls and cast one more ballot, but as Samson's already said, at this point it really is looking pretty decided on the republican side. *shrug*

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