Potomac Primary Results

For the first time in this race, the expected candidates came out big winners in the primaries tonight. The so-called "Potomac" primaries for Virginia, Maryland, and Washington DC. Barack Obama and John McCain cleaned up bigtime in the delegate race with momentum building behind both of them. Clinton and Huckabee have both got to be realizing now that things are looking bad for them. Huckabee is mathematically done for at this point, as all 3 contests tonight were winner-takes-all for the Republicans, while Clinton can still pull this out due to apportioned delegates and the 700 or so wildcards, aka Superdelegates.

Potomac Primaries by State
Republicans Democrats
Washington DC Primaries - 98% reporting
John McCain: 68% +16 delegates Barack Obama: 75% +9 delegates
Mike Huckabee: 17% Hillary Clinton: 24% +2 delegates
Ron Paul: 8%
Maryland Primaries - 58% reporting
John McCain: 55% +13 delegates Barack Obama: 61% +11 delegates
Mike Huckabee: 30% Hillary Clinton: 36% +5 delegates
Ron Paul: 6%
Virginia Primaries - 99% reporting
John McCain: 50% +60 delegates Barack Obama: 64% +50 delegates
Mike Huckabee: 41% Hillary Clinton: 35% +26 delegates
Ron Paul: 5%

Delegate Totals to Date
John McCain: 827
Mitt Romney: 286 [Dropped out]
Mike Huckabee: 217
Ron Paul: 16

Barack Obama: 1,253
Hillary Clinton: 1,211
John Edwards: 26 [Dropped out]

With tonight's huge victories for Obama, he vaults into the lead in the delegate count, though with only 25 more than Clinton it's far from over just yet. McCain now only needs about 300 more delegates to clear the final hurdle. That's not expected to be difficult. Mike Huckabee, for the love of God, drop out and lets get this over with. Let McCain start getting things ready for the big run. I know you don't like him. I'm not terribly happy either, but we can't afford to keep the party divided right now! Mitt Romney, cede your delegates to McCain! Why the hell are you still holding on to them? They're not going to put you on the ticket bud, despite the inclusive nature of the Republican party the establishment blue-bloods aren't ready to put a Mormon up for VP. Besides, you bring nothing to the table, while Huckabee brings a solid hold over the south which is critical.

Next up on the list: Hawaii Democratic Caucus, Washington Primaries, and Wisconsin Primaries on February 19. So we get a week's break to let things settle out now.
"It is pointless to resist, my son." -- Darth Vader
"Resistance is futile." -- The Borg
"Mother's coming for me in the dragon ships. I don't like these itchy clothes, but I have to wear them or it frightens the fish." -- Thurindil

Well. I guess that's that then.

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Jumper »

Posted on Feb 12, 2008 11:31 pm by Samson in: | 7 comment(s) [Closed]
Wow, we get a week off from politics??

Yeah, more or less anyway. As much as the media will let us avoid it :)

Romney decided to shake things up a bit today by endorsing McCain and is encouraging his delegates to join him. So at least one of the things I ranted about may be coming to pass. But if Romney thinks it'll get him on the ticket he's crazy.

But, if all of Romney's delegates go over to McCain, that gives him 1113 delegates and you said he'd only need what was it, 1107 delegates?

Whether Romney thinks it will get him on the ticket, I have no idea. *shrug*

1,113 < 1,191. McCain needs 1,191 to lock it up. Romney's delegates would bring McCain to 78 more and with as many contests as there are still open he'll have that locked up by the end of the month. But nothing says Romney's delegates have to vote the way he wants them to either. He can only encourage them. Apparently once someone with delegates drops out those delegates become uncommitted and are free to vote however they choose. Huckabee is therefore bound to pick some up. It still won't be enough. The writing is on the wall. McCain has already essentially won.

Ah, couldn't remember the exact number, just that it was between 11-1200. However many of Romney's take his encouragement, it'll bring McCain from needing another 364 to needing that many less without having to go through another primary to get them. as it is, I think you're right about Huckabee, he may get some votes from folks who just don't want to bring themselves to vote for McCain out of the lot, but even if he got them all, at this point McCain's lead certain appears too wide to fail now, though I suppose a complete upset is still possible.

As I understand it, right now, it's mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win, even if he takes every last remaining delegate as his. The only way it could happen is if he takes > 95% of what's left, AND gets all of Romney's pool. It seems highly unlikely that Romney's delegates will support Huckabee since the two of them hated each other.

*shrug* On the other hand, how they felt about each other is not necessarily an indication of how the delegates who'd previously supported Romney feel about Huckabee at this point. Either way, at this point it certainly doesn't seem very likely that McCain's not going to win the Republican ticket.

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